Daily VAR

Forecasting making use of the dynamic relationship between related markets over a daily time frame

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The Daily Metal and Mining ETFS and Mining Equity Reports

The Daily Metal and Mining ETFS Reports and Mining Equities Reports are based on MPA’s related markets vector autoregression models.

The trend channel is constructed from a vector autoregression model that looks at the dynamic relationship between related markets. Among the factors considered in the model are Currencies, U.S. Bonds, Indexes. These weightings can vary through time and are recalculated daily.

The chart signal is obtained from the two oscillators below the main chart.

A leading indicator alert is given, warning of a possible trend change.  Failure to retrace at these points, or a weak retracement, often indicates a resilient trend.

An estimate of the next day price region is also given with a more bullish and more bearish scenario.

The main chart shows the price on the left hand side y axis and the percentage from the last closing price on the right hand y axis.

Signal Bars.

Each daily price and oscillator bar is colour coded:

  • Green, bullish (both oscillator1 and oscillator2 are positive).
  • Light Blue, weakly bullish (oscillator 1 is positive while oscillator 2 is negative).
  • Magenta, weakly bearish (oscillator 1 is negative while oscillator 2 is positive).
  • Red, bearish (both oscillator 1 and oscillator 2 are negative).
  • Grey, neutral.

Price Chart: Trend Line

  • A bullish or weakly bullish trend is indicated by a green support line below the price bars.
  • A bearish or weakly bearish trend is indicated by a red resistance line above the price bars.

Oscillator Charts: Triangle Alert:

Early Indication of a potential retracement.

  • A grey upward triangle at the bottom of the oscillator charts indicates a potential upward retracement, while
  • a downward triangle at the top of the oscillator charts indicates a potential retracement down.

The triangle alert is a leading indicator and should be confirmed by breaking news. Failure to retrace at these points, or a weak retracement, often indicates a resilient trend.

Price Chart: Forecast Bar for the next trading day:

  • Expected Scenario (Blue Zone).
  • More Bullish Scenario (Grey Zone above).
  • More Bearish Scenario (Grey Zone below).

Sample Reports:

Precious Metal ETFS:

MPA Gold ETF 23-Sep-2019

MPA_Silver_ETF 23-Sep-2019

MPA_Platinum_ETF 23-Sep-2019

MPA_Palladium_ETF 23-Sep-2019

Precious Metal Miners ETFS:

MPA_Gold Mine_EFT 23-Sep-2019

MPA_Silver Mine_ETF 23-Sep-2019

Base Metal ETFS:

MPA_copper_etf 23-Sep-2019

MPA_aluminium_etf 23-Sep-2019

MPA_zinc_etf 23-Sep-2019

MPA_lead_etf 23-Sep-2019

MPA_tin_etf 23-Sep-2019

Mining Equities:

MPA_PreciousMetalsMining 23-Sep-2019

MPA_GeneralMining 23-Sep-2019

MPA_NonferrousMetals 23-Sep-2019

MPA_ironsteel 23-Sep-2019

Disclaimer:

The trend channel and signals are the output of vector autoregression models on related markets and are not to be taken as investment or trading advice and must be viewed together with fundamental analysis and breaking news. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Historical Data may be subject to revision which may affect the signal. Every effort has been taken to present the correct information, however, neither Metal Price Analytics Ltd nor its staff are liable to any error that may occur.

Report Delivery:

Reports are delivered each working day by email, 48 weeks per year. If for any reason a report cannot be produced, an extra report will be credited.