Mining equities and commodity equities with upside potential with Commodity Trend Confirmation.
Metal Price Analytics produces charts for selected mining equities and energy equities with upside potential together with supporting trend direction confirmation from relevant commodity prices.
LME & COMEX Metal and Oil prices with Driver Trend Confirmation
For Metals, Metal Price Analytics produces charts for LME and COMEX metals together with driver trend confirmation from LME stock inventory (where relevant) and Dollar Index.
For Energy, Metal Price Analytics produces charts of the Crude Oil Price together with driver trend confirmation from Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Dollar Index.
Equities with upside potential with Sector Trend Confirmation.
Metal Price Analytics also produces charts for Equities that may have upside potential together with supporting trend direction confirmation from the corresponding S&P 500 Sector Index.
Forecasting Business and Market Cycles
Group 1 — Core Business‑Cycle Sensors (Highest Importance)
These indicators are the most reliable for identifying turning points in growth, profits, and market cycles. They capture labour‑market momentum, production, GDP, equity‑market discounting, and monetary‑policy stance.
Group 2 — Demand & Credit‑Cycle Drivers (Medium‑High Importance)
These indicators move ahead of consumption, housing, and credit conditions. They are powerful early‑warning signals of shifts in domestic demand and liquidity.
Group 3 — Price & Inflation Dynamics (Medium Importance)
Inflation determines the policy regime. These indicators help classify whether the economy is in an inflationary, disinflationary, or deflationary environment.
Group 4 — Structural & Demographic Anchors (Lower Importance)
These indicators move slowly and shape long‑term potential growth. They are not useful for timing cycle turns but provide essential background.
Group 5 — External & Sentiment Indicators (Supplementary Importance)
These indicators capture capital flows, competitiveness, and risk appetite. They refine the macro picture but do not drive the cycle.
Growth‑Rate‑Cycle Classification (Four‑Phase Model)
1. Acceleration Phase
Characteristics:
- NFP growth rising
- IPI growth rising
- Housing and mortgage approvals improving
- Money supply growth stabilising or rising
- Equity indices trending upward
- Inflation stable or falling
Interpretation: Early‑cycle expansion; strongest forward returns.
2. Peak Growth Phase
Characteristics:
- NFP still strong but slowing
- IPI growth flattening
- Housing momentum topping
- Inflation rising
- Policy tightening begins
- Equity markets show divergence (breadth weakens)
Interpretation: Late‑cycle overheating; risk of reversal increases.
3. Deceleration Phase
Characteristics:
- NFP slowing sharply
- Unemployment bottoming then rising
- IPI contracting
- Housing and mortgage approvals falling
- Money supply growth weakening
- Equity markets rolling over
- Inflation peaking
Interpretation: Cycle downturn; recession risk elevated.
4. Trough / Early Recovery Phase
Characteristics:
- NFP stabilising at low levels
- IPI bottoming
- Housing stabilising
- Policy easing begins
- Money supply growth turning up
- Equity markets bottoming and beginning to lead
Interpretation: Transition to recovery; best forward returns.
The yen‑funded carry trade is one of the central mechanisms shaping global financial conditions. Investors borrow in a low‑yielding currency — historically JPY — and deploy that leverage into higher‑yielding or higher‑beta assets across FX, equities, credit, EM, and commodities.
When volatility is low and yen funding is cheap, the carry trade expands, increasing global liquidity and lifting risk assets. When volatility rises or the yen strengthens, the trade unwinds, triggering rapid deleveraging and correlated sell‑offs.
1) Primary Carry Engine — Direct JPY Funding Indicators
USDJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY, FXY
2) Global Risk‑Appetite Triggers — Volatility, Equities, Credit, Duration
VIX, SPY, HYG, TLT
3) Global Rates Drivers — Short‑ and Intermediate‑Term Funding Costs
5) Emerging Markets — Downstream Liquidity Recipients
ZARJPY, TRYJPY, EMB, EMLC
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Disclaimer:
The information on the website is the output of algorithms . It is not to be taken as investment or trading advice and must be viewed together with fundamental analysis, breaking news and a confirming intraday chart. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Every effort has been taken to present the correct information, however, neither Metal Price Analytics Ltd nor its staff are liable to any error that may occur.
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