Metals Price Analytics Limited’s (MPA’s) Adam Sotowicz has extensive experience in price modelling of currency pairs, equities, the precious metals and the LME base metals. He can create and maintain on a bespoke basis mathematical price models over a range of time-frames, from intra-day, to daily, to a few days ahead, to several years ahead (with the latter using monthly average figures). MPA’s recent focus has been on daily price models for metal etfs and and mining equities, but Adam is keen now to extend bespoke price modelling into non-metallic exchange traded industrial raw materials such as natural rubber and potentially non exchange-traded commodities (such as chemical raw materials and industrial gases), in the first instance most likely using monthly data and forecasting two to three years ahead, with clients providing assistance with data.
The Daily Metal and Mining ETFS and Mining Equity Reports
The Daily Metal and Mining ETFS Reports and Mining Equities Reports are based on MPA’s related markets vector autoregression models.
The trend channel is constructed from a vector autoregression model that looks at the dynamic relationship between related markets. Among the factors considered in the model are Currencies, U.S. Bonds, Indexes. These weightings can vary through time and are recalculated daily.
The chart signal is obtained from the two oscillators below the main chart.
A leading indicator alert is given, warning of a possible trend change. Failure to retrace at these points, or a weak retracement, often indicates a resilient trend.
An estimate of the next day price region is also given with a more bullish and more bearish scenario.
The main chart shows the price on the left hand side y axis and the percentage from the last closing price on the right hand y axis.
Each daily price and oscillator bar is colour coded:
- Green, bullish (both oscillator1 and oscillator2 are positive).
- Light Blue, weakly bullish (oscillator 1 is positive while oscillator 2 is negative).
- Magenta, weakly bearish (oscillator 1 is negative while oscillator 2 is positive).
- Red, bearish (both oscillator 1 and oscillator 2 are negative).
- Grey, neutral.
Price Chart: Trend Line
- A bullish or weakly bullish trend is indicated by a green support line below the price bars.
- A bearish or weakly bearish trend is indicated by a red resistance line above the price bars.
Oscillator Charts: Triangle Alert:
Early Indication of a potential retracement.
- A grey upward triangle at the bottom of the oscillator charts indicates a potential upward retracement, while
- a downward triangle at the top of the oscillator charts indicates a potential retracement down.
The triangle alert is a leading indicator and should be confirmed by breaking news. Failure to retrace at these points, or a weak retracement, often indicates a resilient trend.
Price Chart: Forecast Bar for the next trading day:
- Expected Scenario (Blue Zone).
- More Bullish Scenario (Grey Zone above).
- More Bearish Scenario (Grey Zone below).
Precious Metal ETFS:
Precious Metal Miners ETFS:
Base Metal ETFS:
The trend channel and signals are the output of vector autoregression models on related markets and are not to be taken as investment or trading advice and must be viewed together with fundamental analysis and breaking news. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Historical Data may be subject to revision which may affect the signal. Every effort has been taken to present the correct information, however, neither Metal Price Analytics Ltd nor its staff are liable to any error that may occur.
Reports are delivered each working day by email, 48 weeks per year. If for any reason a report cannot be produced, an extra report will be credited.
LME base, ferrous and minor metals, other commodities, and other equities can also be prepared on a pre-paid bespoke basis, provided the sponsor can also give help with additional data on key market factors, where needed if these are unavailable to MPA.
Long Term Models:
Longer term models can also be built on underlying factors, where the customer provides the historical data and forecast data for the factors.
These can be used for scenario analysis on different assumptions of the forecast factors.