1. Macro Positioning Overview

The latest COT data shows major repositioning across FX, commodities, and metals, driven by the U.S. Treasury bond buyback announcement and shifting rate expectations. Speculators broadly reduced USD longs, while agriculture and several metals saw aggressive buying.

2. BUY Signals (Positioning Increasing / Short Covering / Crowded Longs)

A. Agriculture — Strongest Buy Flows

Funds rushed into grains and softs at the fastest pace on record, with multi‑year highs in:

Corn
Sugar #11
Cotton
Kansas Wheat (HRW) These markets show aggressive speculative long‑building, often at 95th–99th percentile extremes.

Cotton

Net long: 122,903 contracts
99th percentile (2‑yr & 10‑yr) → extremely crowded long.

Corn

Net long: 440,915 contracts
96th percentile → strong speculative accumulation.

Sugar #11

Net long: 110,134 contracts
98th percentile → persistent multi‑week build.

HRW Wheat

99th percentile (2‑yr) → extreme recent‑sample long build.

B. Metals — Copper & Palladium

Copper

Net long: 85,266 contracts
99th percentile (2‑yr & 10‑yr) → structurally extreme long crowding.
Highly sensitive to macro disappointment.

Palladium

Commercial positioning at 85% (upper range)
Price +6.83% → speculative short covering.

C. FX — Broad USD Selling / Non‑USD Buying

Speculators cut USD longs by $8.3B, turning net buyers of most major currencies except JPY.

Euro (EUR)

Short reduced by 22.7k contracts
78% commercial index → improving sentiment.

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Short reduced by 36.6k contracts
72% commercial index → improving.

Swiss Franc (CHF)

Significant short covering (~$1.1B equivalent).

NZD

Asset managers flipped net‑long for first time since July.

3. SELL Signals (Positioning Decreasing / Crowded Shorts / Bearish Extremes)

A. Livestock — Lean Hogs, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle

All three show extreme net‑short positioning, with Lean Hogs and Feeder Cattle at 1st–2nd percentile levels.

Lean Hogs

Net short: -65,921
1st percentile → most extreme short in dataset.

Feeder Cattle

Net short: -5,505
2nd percentile → persistent bearish stance.

Live Cattle

Z‑score: -2.54 → statistically extreme short.

B. Gold & Silver — Commercials at 0%

Commercial positioning for both metals sits at 0%, meaning commercials are heavily short relative to their 26‑week range. Prices fell despite speculative long additions.

Gold

Commercial index: 0%
Price: ‑3.38%

Silver

Commercial index: 0%
Price: ‑2.78%

This combination often signals downside risk or overextended speculative longs.

C. Japanese Yen (JPY)

JPY remains the only major currency with continued speculative selling, driven by rate‑differential pressure. Speculative net short: ‑63,298 contracts.

Category Archives: COT Report

COT Report Summary — Buy & Sell Positioning Signals (Week to 25–28 August 2026)