LME base metals warehouse inventory report

Date reference: 28 August 2026 (latest daily stocks)

1. Overview

On‑warrant stocks across the six main LME base metals (copper, aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) total about 1.26 million tonnes, with a small daily draw of roughly 3,600 tonnes. Overall inventory remains relatively low by historical standards, with aluminium and copper particularly watched for tightness, while lead and nickel hold the largest individual stockpiles.

2. Copper

• On‑warrant stock: 234,275 t
• Daily change: ‑1,300 t
• Recent trend: stocks have eased over the past month, with some earlier sharp daily builds now partially reversing.

Copper remains the key barometer of physical tightness. Earlier in August, inventories surged by over 30,000 t in a single day as metal was placed on warrant, but the latest data show renewed draws, suggesting that the balancing role of LME copper between regional markets (US, China, Europe) continues.

3. Aluminium

• On‑warrant stock: 246,725 t
• Daily change: ‑100 t
• Comment: this is near the lowest level in almost two decades of data, with a steady 30‑day decline of around 6–7%.

Despite low headline stocks, the share of cancelled warrants remains modest, and spreads have tended to sit in small contango rather than strong backwardation—signalling limited near‑term squeeze but structurally lean inventory.

4. Zinc

• On‑warrant stock: 97,950 t
• Daily change: +75 t
• 30‑day change: roughly ‑2%.

Zinc stocks have oscillated, with some recent daily builds following earlier draws. Backwardation in zinc spreads has persisted even as inventory increased, indicating that nearby tightness and positioning remain important drivers rather than simple stock levels.

5. Lead

• On‑warrant stock: 406,250 t
• Daily change: ‑2,250 t
• 30‑day change: about ‑7.9%, one of the sharper drains in the complex.

Lead holds the largest single inventory among the six metals, but the recent pace of decline suggests firm end‑use demand or metal being drawn into non‑LME channels.

6. Nickel

• On‑warrant stock: 268,362 t
• Daily change: +48 t
• 30‑day change: slightly positive (~+0.8%).

Nickel stocks have been relatively stable, with small net builds over the month. Price action has been driven more by supply narratives (especially Indonesia) than by warehouse levels alone.

7. Tin

• On‑warrant stock: 5,550 t
• Daily change: ‑40 t
• 30‑day change: about ‑7.7%, making tin one of the fastest‑draining markets in percentage terms.

Tin inventory is tiny in absolute terms, so relatively small tonnage moves can materially affect spreads and perceived tightness.

8. Interpretation

• Tightest headline stocks: aluminium and copper, with aluminium at multi‑year lows and copper still the main physical barometer.
• Fastest percentage drains: lead and tin, both showing notable 30‑day declines.
• Relatively comfortable stocks: nickel and, in absolute terms, lead, though trends matter more than levels.
• Mixed zinc signal: inventory has risen at times, yet backwardation persists, pointing to unresolved nearby tightness.

Falling LME inventory—especially when combined with rising cancelled warrants and firm prices—typically signals tightening physical availability rather than guaranteeing a specific price move. Current data show a complex where aluminium and copper remain structurally lean, zinc and tin exhibit pockets of tightness, and lead and nickel provide bulk but are not immune to draws.