07 June 2017
The daily report looks at the charts of the Precious Metal prices for Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium as well as the Gold:Silver and Platinum:Palladium ratios over a period of the last 120 days. These prices are then compaired to price models that are constructed from drivers that are correlated with the prices and also have a fundamental relationship.
The Upper Chart
The upper chart shows the actual (blue line) and modelled prices (grey band). A Signal and 5 day Support and Resistance Levels are also shown.
Signal +2: Both the momentum of the actual and modelled lines are up.
Signal +1: The momentum of the actual line is up while the modelled lines is down.
Signal -1: The momentum of the actual line is down while the modelled lines is up.
Signal -2: Both the momentum of the actual and modelled lines are down.
The Lower Chart
The lower chart show the actual minus modelled price difference and horizontal lines at standard deviations of -2,0 and 2. When the price difference is over or under two standard deviations there is an increasing probability that the actual price will retrace towards the modelled value.
Gold (GC): Actual and Modelled
Silver (SI): Actual and Modelled
Platinum (PL): Actual and Modelled
Palladium (PA): Actual and Modelled
Gold:Silver Ratio: Actual and Modelled
Platinum:Palladium ratio: Actual and Modelled
Price Drivers Used In The Models
Among the Price Drivers considered by MPA for the daily models are (i) TIP :iShares TIPS Bond, (ii) BANK : NASDAQ Bank Index, (iii) GSPC : S&P 500 , (iv) SHY : iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF, (v) the iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond price ETF,(vi) Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EURUSD),(vii) the Dollar to Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate (USDCNY).
Care has been taken to present accurate information. The model outputs are mathematically generated from the relationships between the metal and selected drivers which have an influence on the price. They are not trading or investment advice. Neither Metal Price Analytics Ltd nor its staff can accept any liability for any errors or modelling uncertainty.
A member of the Metal Market Alliance.