Bloomsbury Minerals Economics Ltd owns 25% of the mathematical price modelling company Metal Price Analytics Ltd (MPA), while the other 75% is owned by Adam Sotowicz.
Metals Price Analytics Limited’s (MPA’s) Managing Director Adam Sotowicz has extensive experience in price modelling of currency pairs, equities, the precious metals and the LME base metals. He can create and maintain on a bespoke basis mathematical price models over a range of time-frames, from intra-day, to daily, to a few days ahead, to several years ahead (with the latter using monthly average figures).
MPA’s recent focus has been on developing a new generation of LME base metals price forecasting models, looking two to three years ahead, with input from Peter Hollands of Bloomsbury Minerals Economics. These models cover cash and three months prices (and the spreads between them) in US currency (USD), simultaneously with the cash price in Chinese currency equivalent (CNY). The price drivers are LME stocks, the rate of global industrial production growth and the USD / CNY exchange rate. Chinese and US money supply are also being considered as possible further drivers. Modelling methods include use of Lasso and Ridge Regression.
MPA is open to alliances with conventional (i.e. non-modelling) metal market analysis companies, to source both market balance forecasts and marketing resources.
This work can also be extended to bespoke price modelling for non-metallic exchange traded industrial raw materials such as natural rubber and potentially those non exchange-traded ores and metals for which there are Chinese port stock series., in the first instance most likely using monthly data and forecasting two to three years ahead, with clients providing assistance with data.
Adam Sotowicz and Peter Hollands had previously worked together for many years in BME Price Models Ltd (BME PM), where forecasting models of the cash prices and forward spreads were developed for six LME metals, as well as cash price models of gold and crude oil. BME PM worked very closely on trading models with one specialist metals hedge fund for four years, having also been prominent in that hedge fund’s Prospectus.
See also the LinkedIn personal profiles of Adam Sotowicz and Peter Hollands and the LinkedIn corporate profiles of Metal Price Analytics and Bloomsbury Minerals Economics for more frequent updates.